For Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seeking a return to the nuclear deal before his protege Ebrahim Raisi becomes president in August is a win-win strategy: it secures sanctions relief while allowing the incoming administration to maintain its anti-western stance.
The affinity between the two men is decades old, going back to 1989, when Mr Raisi was appointed as Tehran's prosecutor - the same year Mr Khamenei became supreme leader.
Their relationship is also based on their shared ultra-conservative ideology, solid relations with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and a long record of empowering Iran’s hard-line judiciary while suppressing dissent.
The incoming president was, for example, a member of a four-man "death committee" in the 1980s that executed political detainees with no due process.
The rapport with Mr Khamenei helped Mr Raisi become the head of Iran’s powerful judiciary in 2017, a position he will continue to hold until he assumes the presidency.
But even though both men have been critical of the nuclear negotiations and the deal reached with world powers in 2015, a return to it before Mr Raisi takes office could be the preferred outcome.
“We support the negotiations that guarantee our national interests ... America should immediately return to the deal and fulfill its obligations under the deal," Mr Raisi said on Monday.
“Khamenei can have it both ways if a deal is reached before [President Hassan] Rouhani leaves office,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran programme at the Middle East Institute.
“Mr Raisi can claim credit and the regime will sell it as his ‘tough’ line forced the hands of the western powers,” the expert told The National.
Sanctions relief is a priority for Mr Khamenei. Iran's currency, the rial, has lost more than 80 percent of its value against the dollar since former president Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018.
Returning to the deal in the next two months, Mr Vatanka explained, could inject a much-needed cash flow into the country early in Mr Raisi’s presidency.
Dina Esfandiari, senior adviser on the Middle East at the International Crisis Group, saw a deal under Mr Rouhani as an ideal outcome for his successor.
“It’s in the Raisi administration's interest that the Rouhani team gets to a deal and that implementation falls under [Raisi].
“This means any negative issues [with the deal] can be blamed on the previous administration while Raisi takes credit for the good sides and its implementation,” Ms Esfandiari told The National.
For the administration of President Joe Biden, the approach has not changed on nuclear front, with the ball having been lobbed into Mr Khamenei’s court.
“The ultimate decision for whether or not to come back lies with Iran’s supreme leader,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday.
“Ultimately, it lies with him and his decisions as to whether he wants to go down the path of diplomacy or face mounting pressure, not just from the United States, but from the rest of the international community.”
But for follow-up talks that would address Iran’s ballistic missile programme and regional behaviour, Mr Raisi’s ascendance complicates matters for Washington.
“Regional issues and missiles are not negotiable,” Iran’s new president said while also rejecting a meeting with Mr Biden.
A seventh round of talks to return to the nuclear deal is expected to be held in Vienna before the end of the month.
